Okay, let’s start with the now undeniable fact that the Red Sox, who lead the Blue Jays by six games with six to play are pretty well home and cooled out for the division championship. They’re not going to lose six straight while we win six to create a playoff for the division, so we have to gear ourselves up for securing a wild card spot and (gulp) playing a good game to go on to an ALDS.
As of today, Toronto and Baltimore hold the wild card spots, with the Jays in front of the Orioles by one game. Lurking two games behind Baltimore’s second wild card position, three games behind us, are the Tigers and the Mariners. We are in a position in which we can materially affect our playoff chances by how this current series with the Orioles, which ends our last home stand of the regular season, plays out. We can’t do anything about Detroit or Seattle except keep an eye on the scoreboard.
The good news, with the division title out of reach and the sudden-death wild-card on the menu, is that if there is a tie between either the Tigers and us, or the Orioles and us, we have already won the season series against Detroit, and only need win one of these last three games with Baltimore to win that season series. This means that we would host the wild card game in case of a tie. (Of course, if there is no tie and we end up with the lower record of the two wild card teams, the play-in game will be on the road.) The bad news with the focus on the wild card game is two-fold. First, with it so close it is possible that a prolonged Blue Jays’ slump could see us miss the playoffs completely (I should bite my tongue). Second, if we do end up with a tie and playing the sudden-death game here, both the Orioles and the Tigers hit a lot of home runs, and the cozy confines of the TV Dome are friendly to sluggers of all stripes.
The arrangement of the Blue Jays’ rotation that resulted in Aaron Sanchez receiving the start tonight in the first game of the Orioles’ series has been perfectly manipulated. He gives us the strongest chance of starting out the series on the right foot, and in the process securing the season series win over Baltimore. He will be ready again on normal rest for the last game of the season in Boston, if we need to win that game to make the playoffs. If we don’t need him next Sunday in Boston, he’s ready for the wild card game with a little extra rest. Moreover, since the most likely (at this moment) wild card scenario would have Baltimore playing here on Tuesday the 4th of October, and if it is Sanchez taking that start for Toronto, then tonight was an opportunity to lay down a challenge to the Orioles.
The O’s countered with Kevin Gausman, their best and most consistent starter behind their number one Chris Tillman. Gausman’s ERA going into tonight, 3.57, is far more indicative of his work than his won-loss record of 8-11, which was distorted by the fact that though he’s thrown well the entire season, he’d gotten very little run support early on, and been tagged with a series of losses he didn’t deserve. In fact, he’d gone 0-5 from his first start in late April until he finally defeated Tampa Bay on June 25th for his first win, yet his May and June ERA had hovered just under the 4.20 mark.
But it was Sanchez and the Jays who came out of the blocks first in this one. Sanchez struck out the side in order in the first, and remember that this was Adam Jones, Chris Davis hitting second for some strange reason, and Mannie Machado. Then, two batters in, Gausman found himself in a two-zip hole, as he walked Zeke Carrera, leading off in the absence of the injured Devon Travis, and then gave up Josh Donaldson’s 37th homer of the year, a decisive blast to left. Gausman settled down quickly, struck out Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, and retired Russell Martin on a fly ball to left.
In the second inning the two starters reversed roles, in a sense. Sanchez fanned Mark Trumbo for his fourth straight strikeout, then walked Pedro Alvarez, fanned Jonathan Schoop, gave up a single to Matt Wieters that sent Alvarez to third, and then got Michael Bourn to fly out to centre to end the inning, taking 26 pitches to close out the Orioles. Gausman on the other hand retired Troy Tulowitzki on a comebacker and struck out Michael Saunders and Kevin Pillar, taking only ten pitches to finish the inning.
Both teams scored in the third, leaving the Jays ahead 3-1. Sanchez gave up a leadoff double to Jay Hardy, who eventually scored on a two-out single by Mark Trumbo, but before that Troy Tulowitzki saved him from significant further damage with one out when he dove instinctively to his right to snag a vicious liner by Mannie Machado that was headed for the gap in left centre. With one out in the bottom of the fourth, surprise sparkplug Zeke Carrera lined up a 3-1 fast ball (why was he swinging at a 3-1 pitch? Did he have the green light? Interesting.) and hit it out to the opposite field, restoring the Jays’ two-run lead.
While Sanchez continued to hold the Orioles in check, Toronto extended its lead in the fifth, employing a combination of well-executed small ball and a rare Mannie Machado error. Kevin Pillar led off with a single to centre off Gausman, and then Darwin Barney, playing second for Devon Travis, dropped down a perfect sacrifice bunt fielded by the pitcher. Carrera continued to contribute with another opposite-field hit, a single to left. Jays’ third-base coach Luis Rivera gambled on Michael Bourn’s poor arm to send Pillar home. The throw as expected was well off line, and Pillar scored easily while Carrera advanced to second. Gausman walked Josh setting up the double play, and got exactly what he was looking for, a hard smash right at Machado by Edwin Encarnacion, a perfect double play ball. But Machado fired the ball past second and into shallow right field, as Carrera came around to score his third run of the game, and give Toronto a 5-1 lead. Gausman got a second double-play ball from Jose Bautista, and this time his infield turned it to end the inning.
Sanchez came out for the sixth with a secure lead and did what was needed—keep the Orioles off the board and the lead intact. But he did have to lock it down with a couple of baserunners on board. Trumbo led off with a single, and stayed at first until Matt Wieters drew a walk with two outs. The Orioles effort ended with Michael Bourn flying out to Carrera in left. While Sanchez got the outs that he had to get in his six innings of work, this wasn’t his crispest performance, as the Orioles had base-runners in four of the six innings he worked. This, plus the fact that he struck out a season-high ten batters meant that he couldn’t continue past the sixth, with his pitch count at 103. In his six innings of work he gave up the one run and five hits, walked three, and struck out the ten.
Curiously, Gausman reached his sixth-inning end with the same number of pitches, 103. Minus the two dingers and a little short on the strikeouts, Gausman’s performance was about as effective as that of Sanchez. Of course, they really do keep score in this game, and to Gausman’s detriment there is no “minusing” of gopher balls. Sanchez kept the ball in the yard and Gausman didn’t, and that was the ball game, with neither team scoring in the last three innings, and how rare is that at this late point in the season, with bullpen arms pooping out all over the league?
With the Jays’ late-inning bullpen short-handed Joe Biagini blessed them with two innings of shutout ball, giving up only an infield single to Adam Jones in the seventh. The young right-hander benefited from a great play in each of the two innings he worked. Josh Donaldson saved an extra-base hit by Jones with a dive into foul territory to snag the hard grounder that was headed for the left field corner. Jones was safe at first, but it could easily have been a double. In the eighth with two outs Jonathan Schoop lined one towards the gap in right centre but Kevin Pillar raced over and in to make yet another of his patented flying dives to pick the ball off the turf.
In one of the funnier images of the season, Biagini was caught on camera waiting at the edge of the dugout steps to greet Pillar as he came in. Instead of one of the silly choreographed displays, or a vigourous high five, Biagini “leaned in” and gave Pillar one of the most awkward man-hugs you’ve ever seen, the kind where you hug the other guy’s shoulders and thump him on the back like an amiable bear, all the while keeping safe clear air between your lower bodies. We’ve all been there, haven’t we?
Roberto Osuna came in for the non-save—damn Gibbie’s lights, he did it again! Osuna immediately gave up singles to Wieters and Bourn—didja notice that, Gibbie? But he made a crisp play on a soft Jay Hardy comebacker to get a force at second, and then closed the game out by getting Adam Jones to hit into a double play started by Donaldson.
The tension of these late-season games was evident when Chris Davis was rung up by Biagini in the seventh. Incensed at the call by plate umpire Will Little on a fast ball that Davis thought was inside, Davis cut loose and was pitched from the game, as was Buck Showalter when he came out to join the tea party. This is the same Chris Davis who very impressively broke his bat over his knee after striking out here in Toronto(he does it a lot. Striking out, I mean. Not sure about the broken bats.)
Tommy Hunter worked around a single by Darwin Barney, who was erased by a double play, and a walk to Donaldson to hold the Jays at bay in their seventh, and Oliver Drake yielded Tulo’s second opposite-field double of the game in the eighth, but Tulo died at second when Melvin Upton flew out to right.
So after the blip of blowing the lead against the Yankees Monday night and missing the sweep, Sanchez, Donaldson, Carrera and the bullpen did a good job of turning things around. Most importantly, the Jays now lead the season series against Baltimore 10-7, and have secured home-field advantage for a wild-card game if they end up tied with Baltimore at the end of the season.
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